Each week, including this week's 2024 Tour Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 Tour Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Ben An - 2 - T-13 The Open, T-13 BMW Championship
- Sam Burns - 3 - T-12 3M Open, T-5 FedEx St. Jude, T-2 BMW Championship
- Patrick Cantlay - 2 - T-12 FedEx St. Jude, T-13 BMW Championship
- Wyndham Clark - 2 - T-7 FedEx St. Jude, T-13 BMW Championship
- Tony Finau - 2 - T-12 3M Open, T-13 BMW Championship
- Billy Horschel - 3 - T-2 The Open, T-7 Wyndham Championship, T-10 FedEx St. Jude
- Sungjae Im - 2 - T-7 The Open, T-11 BMW Championship
- Taylor Pendrith - 2 - T-5 3M Open, T-13 BMW Championship
- Xander Schauffele - 3 - WIN The Open, T-2 FedEx St. Jude, T-5 BMW Championship
- Scottie Scheffler - 3 - T-7 The Open, WIN Olympics, 4th FedEx St. Jude
- Adam Scott - 2 - T-10 The Open, T-2 BMW Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 10 at the Tour Championship in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Tony Finau - 2
- Viktor Hovland - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 4
- Collin Morikawa - 2
- Xander Schauffele - 5
- Scottie Scheffler - 3
- Justin Thomas - 4
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Tour Championship.
This is a super awkward course with weird strokes gained because of the nature of the tournament, but the clear fits are Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
