Each week, including this week's 2024 BMW Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 BMW Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Sam Burns - 2 - T-12 3M Open, T-5 FedEx St. Jude
- Nick Dunlap - 2 - WIN Barracuda Championship, T-5 FedEx St. Jude
- Max Greyserman - 2 - 2nd 3M Open, 2nd Wyndham Championship
- Billy Horschel - 2 - T-2 The Open, T-7 Wydnham Championship
- Alex Noren - 2 - T-10 Scottish Open, T-13 The Open
- Xander Schauffele - 2 - WIN The Open, T-2 FedEx St. Jude
- Scottie Scheffler - 3 - T-7 The Open, WIN Olympics, 4th FedEx St. Jude
- Sahith Theegala - 2 - T-4 Scottish Open, T-6 3M Open
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Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the BMW Championship in the last five years, across venues.
Here are those players:
- Sam Burns - 2
- Patrick Cantlay - 5
- Corey Conners - 3
- Tony Finau - 3
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 2
- Brian Harman - 2
- Sungjae Im - 4
- Hideki Matsuyama - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 4
- Xander Schauffele - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 2
- Adam Scott - 2
- Sahith Theegala - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's BMW Championship.
We don't have data on Castle Pines, however, so that will unfortunately leave us without course fits this week.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
