Each week, including this week's 2024 US Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 US Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Sam Burns - 2 - T-13 Wells Fargo Championship, T-10 RBC Canadian Open
- Corey Conners - 2 - T-13 Wells Fargo Championship, T-6 RBC Canadian Open
- Ryan Fox - 2 - T-4 Myrtle Beach Classic, T-7 RBC Canadian Open
- Billy Horschel - 2 - T-8 PGA Championship, T-15 Memorial
- Viktor Hovland - 2 - 3rd PGA Championship, T-15 Memorial
- Sungjae Im - 3 - T-4 Wells Fargo Championship, T-9 Colonial, T-8 Memorial
- Robert MacIntyre - 3 - T-13 Myrtle Beach Classic, T-8 PGA Championship, WIN RBC Canadian Open
- Rory McIlroy - 4 - WIN Wells Fargo Chapionship, T-12 PGA Championship, T-4 RBC Canadian Open, T-15 Memorial
- Collin Morikawa - 3 - T-4 PGA Championship, T-4 Colonial, 2nd Memorial
- Xander Schauffele - 3 - 2nd Wells Fargo Championship, WIN PGA Championship, T-8 Memorial
- Scottie Scheffler - 3 - T-8 PGA Championship, 2nd Colonial, WIN Memorial
- Sepp Straka - 3 - T-8 Wells Fargo Championship, 5th Colonial, T-5 Memorial
- Sahith Theegala - 2 - T-12 PGA Championship, T-12 Memorial
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the US Open in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Harris English - 3
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 2
- Russell Henley - 2
- Viktor Hovland - 2
- Dustin Johnson - 2
- Brooks Koepka - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 5
- Collin Morikawa - 3
- Jon Rahm - 4
- Xander Schauffele - 5
- Scottie Scheffler - 3
- Adam Scott - 2
- Gary Woodland - 2
- Will Zalatoris - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's US Open.
However, since we have this thing move around, and it's been a decade since Pinehurst No. 2 hosted, we'll pass on this.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
