Piazza Affari at its highest since April, spread in the 200 area. Gas at pre-war prices

Trend of the Btp / Bund spread


France, consumer prices drop in December

THE Consumer prices in France fell, surprisingly by 0.1% in December with inflation slowing to 5.9% over a year, against 6.2% in November, according to the provisional estimate published by the Insee statistical institute. Expectations were for price growth. The fall in energy prices caused the decline. However, this decline may only be temporary, as the National Statistics Institute warned last month that inflation should peak at 7% in early 2023, before declining more sustainably from March.

Slowdown in German inflation still supports European lists

The trend on German prices – after the slowdown in consumer prices to 8.6% in December – is also confirmed by the data relating to imports. THE import pricesin fact, they decreased by 4.5% in November 2022, recording the third consecutive decline and an unprecedented month-on-month decline. This was announced by the Destatis statistics office, adding that import prices rose by 14.5% compared to November 2021, slowing down from the previous months. “The sharp drop in German inflation is due to one-off energy subsidies, so it will probably reverse in January,” warns Franziska Palmas, Senior Europe Economist at Capital Economics. “Global inflation is likely to decline rapidly in March, but we believe the base rate, which likely increased in December, will end the year well above 2%,” adds the economist, partly cooling the expectations for less aggressive moves on ECB rates in the next appointments in February and March.

The contraction of the economy in the Eurozone is slowing down

In December, the economic contraction of the Eurozone slows down with a decrease in pressure on prices. Relieving the pressure on the region’s economy was the new and strong weakening of inflation which slowed the drop in orders and favored a further increase in confidence. But general economic optimism has historically remained subdued, reflecting corporate concerns about energy market prospects, high inflation and growing recession risks. S&P Global releases seasonally adjusted Eurozone Composite Output PMI for December, which came in below 50, placing it for the sixth consecutive month in the contraction zone, but up to 49.3 from 47.8 in November, indicating the smallest decline since last July, the month in which activity began to contract. Once again, manufacturing is the main brake on overall production in December, considering that the PMI index for services, while remaining below the threshold of 50, rose to 49.8 from 48.5 in November.

Gas(-11%) at January levels. Oil down, euro climbs back to $1.06

New thud in the value of gas: on the Amsterdam TTF platform, February futures lost 11.49%, reaching 64 euros per megawatt hour, level not seen since January 20, 2022, before the war in Ukraine started. Since the peak above 342 euros, reached on 26 August last, the value of gas has lost over 81%. In the first sessions of 2023, the value of gas fell by 16.1% and since 19 December, the day on which agreement on the price cap was reached in Europe, prices have slipped by 41%. Boosting gas sales is lower demand due to the mild winter, national gas savings plans as well as lower demand from companies that have tried to cut costs. Today’s drop is also due to the data that emerged on European storages, which were almost at full capacity, based on data from the Gie-Agsi platform: in Europe they are at 83.5%, in Italy at 82 .5%. On the podium is Germany, which has stocks of 222.83 TWh, up by 0.41% and a filling index of 90.57%. Fears of an economic slowdown also weighed on the petrolium, with Brent which in London is back below 80 dollars a barrel, Wti which is traded below 75 dollars in New York. On the foreign exchange market, theEUR it goes back to $1.06.

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Piazza Affari at its highest since April, spread in the 200 area. Gas at pre-war prices

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